The USA has started trade wars. President Trump has issued decree after decree, sometimes in a completely eccentric way: he closed down a humanitarian organization – the consequences of this move will show up over time, fired thousands of civil servants, allocated huge funds for the development of artificial intelligence, and abolished the Department of Education. Finally, he virtually abandoned the principles of free trade that had been in place since World War II and imposed tariffs.
He also made the EU feel lonely. The EU has realized its military weakness (although it should be noted that this weakness is relative. Thanks to high technology and a strong economy, the EU can regain its strength quite quickly).
The U.S. has dragged China into a trade war, openly declared its support for Taiwan, and considers the existing UN system to be meaningless. We may witness the collapse of the UN in Trump’s second term.
Israel is highly motivated and focused on its goals in the Middle East. Despite Trump’s obsession with the Nobel Peace Prize, Israel is terrorizing the region. Israel is preparing to attack Iran in the Golan Heights; the US strikes against the Houthis should be seen in this context. In addition, Israel openly states that it considers Turkey a threat. A recent statement by the Israeli government mentions the possibility of a conflict with Turkey within months, and Israel recently bombed bases we plan to use in Syria. (Tensions between Turkey and Israel are likely to continue with the use of proxy forces in Syria, unless Trump intervenes and forces an agreement.)
China, on the other hand, is making significant progress. It continues to amaze with its technology and is openly using Trump’s challenge to the world system as propaganda. (I recommend reading M. Friedman’s article ” I Saw The Future It Was Not in America” in the NYT).
China’s trade agreements with South Korea and Japan are also very important. Chinese media have characterized these agreements as an open challenge to the United States. Historical relations and conflicts of interest prevent the possibility of an alliance there yet, but we cannot say that while the world is changing so fast, interests will not change and the historical flow will not diverge.
In addition to all this, there is another growing trend in the world: Some leaders, especially Trump, do not hesitate to take steps in the style of Ragion di Stato. The justifications are similar; it is said that the legal order may not function properly during periods of restructuring, and the criticism of “lawlessness” against the steps taken is responded to in this way.
In the Middle East, Syria announced a new cabinet. Al-Shara seems to have listened to criticism. It is positive that there are reformists in the cabinet and that there is a Kurdish minister. But there is no Turkmen minister. Moreover, the interim constitution is both too authoritarian and far from inclusive.
Things are not going well in Lebanon either. Unfortunately, we can easily predict that stability will not be achieved there for some time.
In Iraq, Nedim Qutaysh says the return of Musa Kazimi could be part of a new project. While tensions among Kurds in Iraq are considerable, it remains to be seen whether such a strong Kurdish organization in Syria will join the central army, and if so, under what conditions.
In addition, although the Abraham Accords (2020) have been stalled for the time being due to Israel’s genocide in Gaza, relations between the Saudis, the UAE and the US are progressing quite well. In particular, the Saudis’ modernization steps are worth watching and paying attention to.
A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will probably be reached in the coming years.
We can create scenarios that the Levant/Mashriq will soon become more complicated; that despite the US desire for peace and energy security, Israel will use this process, which it sees as an opportunity, to destabilize Syria and Lebanon, make changes in Iraq, attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, and work for a change of government within 5-10 years.
If these developments continue, we may see a rapprochement between the EU-led UK, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan, US-led Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others, Chinese-led North Korea, Pakistan, and some countries in Africa. The important point in this scenario is that Russia may not be on any side, countries like Japan and Korea may not directly side with the US in a trade war with China, and the EU may not want to take revenge on Russia for Trump’s offensive steps against the EU.
However, all of these scenarios could change dramatically if the Democrats win the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026. Trump’s decrees and projects could get stuck in legal and budgetary hurdles. His fellow tech oligarchs could go their own way, or a battle between Musk and Trump could begin.
Whatever the case, the impact of Trump’s actions in just a few months has created all sorts of fissures, and it’s time for the U.S. to confront some of the problems that Biden put off.
In addition to all this, the reality of techno-oligarchs can no longer be denied. These individuals are now undeniably influential in the global system.
Furthermore, a concept that was recently debated in The Economist—and one that, in my opinion, will become increasingly relevant—is also worth mentioning: inheritocracy, that is, the enrichment of those who become richer through inheritance and the power of inheritance.. The article explains in detail how this threatens meritocracy, economic order, and the capitalist system itself. In other international publications, the issue of inheritance taxes is also being raised. Frankly speaking, I found it necessary to include this concept in this article I wrote about the world of the future.
As everyone has noted, it is clear that the new order, unlike the Westphalian or post-Westphalian order, will not involve much consensus. There will be no dominant power in the world system; a multipolar world order will develop, countries will continue to trade with everyone, threat perceptions will not be as sharply differentiated as they were yesterday, and no one will be fully committed to anyone. (One can look at various futurological studies on this subject, and there are many studies by Western think tanks. More specifically, one can look at the Atlantic Council’s 2035 Perspective.)
In this order, if civilizations cannot reconcile and dialogue with each other, and if global cooperation does not develop at least on basic issues, the legal order that is attempted to be established through international organizations, which has already collapsed, may give way to more chaos and turmoil. While there are major problems such as climate crisis, water crisis, food crisis, unsafe, unhealthy food and unhealthy generations, the risk of a possible pandemic, the genocide in Gaza in the middle of the 21st century, and our world is on the verge of a major change with the artificial intelligence revolution, the world needs wise, dignified, conscientious leaders and civil society actors who recognize the new era to be more effective.
Lawyer Haldun Barış
Translated by professional translator and lawyer Leyla Aliyeva
To read in Turkish: “Yine Yeniden Yeni Dünya Düzeni”, https://hurfikirler.com/yine-yeniden-yeni-dunya-duzeni/
Picture ENOT-POLOSKUN/iStock
